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GISMETEO.RU
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Nation    

Official: Revised inflation forecast due
Journal Staff Report

KIEV, June 25 – Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko will have to submit her revised 2008 inflation forecast for approval by President Viktor Yushchenko no later than the end of the day Thursday, a senior official said Wednesday.

Tymoshenko has failed for a week to submit the revised forecast, postponing important 2008 budget amendments that the government had originally planned to approve back in March.

The amendments are supposed to factor in a much higher rate of inflation this year than earlier expected, a move that may trigger greater spending by the government.

“The presidential office’s chief-of-staff demands Tymoshenko submit the revised indicators before the end of the day June 26,” Viktor Baloha, the chief-of-staff, said in a statement.

Seven days ago Tymoshenko suggested that 2008 inflation should be revised to 15.3%, up from 9.6% planned originally, but Yushchenko had rejected the forecast as too optimistic.

The government later held discussions with the National Bank of Ukraine over the likely rate of inflation, but the final forecast figure has not been disclosed.

Skyrocketing inflation has been topping Ukraine’s most urgent macroeconomic problems with the State Statistics Committee reporting inflation at 31.1% between May and May 2007.

The International Monetary Fund forecast Ukraine’s inflation at 17.7% in 2008, while domestic analysts see the inflation even higher than that at the end of the year.

Mykola Azarov, a former finance minister and a senior member of the opposition Regions Party, sees Ukraine’s inflation at between 20% and 25% in 2008, as he blames Tymoshenko for inconsistent anti-inflation policy.

Meanwhile, the higher inflation forecast the move cash will have the government spent to compensate the poor people, whose revenue depends on the rate of inflation.

Tymoshenko’s earlier forecast of 15.3% inflation in 2008 would probably trigger an extra 30 billion hryvnias in social spending, while greater forecast will lead to a greater spending figure, analysts said.

In spite of the rising consumer prices and other issues, Finance Minister Viktor Pynzenyk has been keeping 2008 budget deficit so far at 1.5% of the GDP, by suspending some state programs, such as financial support to farmers and other programs.

Ukraine’s original 2008 budget deficit was approved at 2.1% of GDP. (tl/ez)




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