KYIV, March 25 – The International Monetary Fund (IMF), following the third review of the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement for Ukraine, still considers the end of active hostilities in 2024 as the baseline scenario, however, in the updated downside scenario maintains the assumption of a more intense war running into 2025, the IMF has slightly improved its macroeconomic forecast.

"With the shock assumed to start in 2024Q2, the output contraction reaches 4 percent in 2024 compared with baseline growth of 3-4 percent. The more protracted and intense war is expected to significantly weigh on economic sentiment, the pace of migrant return, fiscal spending needs, and export capacity," the IMF said in materials published on its website.