KIEV, Aug. 4 – Ukraine may face a major budget deficit this year due to the country’s rapidly shrinking economy, the office of President Viktor Yushchenko warned Tuesday, citing its most recent macroeconomic analysis.

Ukraine was likely to face a state budget deficit of 41 billion hryvnias in 2009, compared with 9.2 billion hryvnias originally forecast. The overall budget deficit, including central and regional budgets, may reach 63 billion hryvnias, the office said.

The office, which frequently criticizes the government of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko for economic policy, released the analysis after the government issued figures suggesting 2009 budget revenue was in line with forecast.

The government said general budget revenue in January through July exceeded the forecast by 3.6%, while state budget revenue had been just in line with the forecast.

But the office alleged that the government has tempered the original forecast by quietly lowering figures to make budget revenue statistics in January-July look better.

“Such implementation of the budget has become possible due to a major correction of the forecast,” the office said in the analysis report. The office said that compared with the original forecast, state budget revenue in January through July was down 11.1%.

Overall budget revenue will probably be 17.4% lower in 2009 compared with the original forecast, the office said.

The office also alleged that the government has been resorting to collecting taxes early from big state taxpayers, while at the same to time delaying tax rebates to exporters, thus increasing cash flow at the government’s disposal.

The latest allegations underscore the lack of trust between the government and the presidential office. Tymoshenko and Yushchenko are expected to compete at the next presidential election due January 17, 2010.

The Tymoshenko government has earlier this year resorted to classifying important economic statistics, apparently trying to prevent the release of data showing the depth of the economic contraction this year.

After delaying the statistics for almost six months, Tymoshenko was forced to release the first-quarter data at the end of June. The data was issued only after the International Monetary Fund had warned that releasing the data was crucial for the release of the next loan installment.

The data showed that Ukraine’s economy contracted 20.3% on the year in the first quarter, one of the worst such indicators in the world, suggesting that Ukraine was one of the countries worst-hit by the global economic crisis.

Russia’s economy, for example, contracted 9.8% on the year in the first quarter, according to Russia’s Finance Ministry. (tl/ez)