KIEV, May 21 – Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said Thursday the economy has been showing signs of “stabilization” after a major slump earlier this year, and predicted the recovery may start as soon as in four months.

“We have entered the stage of gradual stabilization,” Tymoshenko said at a joint meeting of the government and business leaders. “Main industries have stopped declining, while many other sectors have a slight, but steady growth.”

Tymoshenko’s comments seek to ease mounting concerns over the state of the country’s economy following the government’s refusal to disclose vital economic statistics since the beginning of the year.

The government earlier this year changed the schedule of economic growth data reports from monthly to quarterly reports, but had later refused to disclose the Q1 report until late June.

Ukraine’s economy probably contracted 20% on the year in the first quarter, analysts said. Ukraine’s industrial output plunged 32% on the year in the first quarter, according to the State Statistics Committee, one of the worst such indicators in the world.

Tymoshenko insisted the economy will grow 0.4% on the year in 2009, while the International Monetary Fund had predicted the economy will probably contract 9% on the year.

The U.S., the world’s biggest economy, is not expected to show positive growth until the end of the year, many analysts said, suggesting that the rest of the world may only generate economic growth the following year.

But Tymoshenko, encouraged by recent stability for prices of steel, Ukraine’s main export, forecast that the country may be able to start recovery sooner, perhaps in as soon as four months.

“God help the price stabilization to last for at least three or four months,” Tymoshenko said. “After that the recovery will begin.”

Echoing Tymoshenko’s optimistic tone, Ihor Umanskiy, the acting finance minister, said the government will not be seeking to amend the 2009 budget based on the results of the first quarter.

“Budget revenue collection is implemented. It’s very hard, but it’s implemented,” Umanskiy told Channel 5 television, adding that fractured Parliament will not be able to approve any amendments for the budget anyway and that could make the situation worse.

Tymoshenko promised the International Monetary Fund earlier this year to amend the budget based on the results of the first quarter, perhaps in the middle of May.

The IMF disbursed $2.8 billion installment to Ukraine earlier this month, and said may disburse another $3 billion after June 15 if the government keeps fiscal discipline and restructures and refinances the banking sector.

The government has been earlier considering providing refinancing for seven badly hit commercial banks, but the number of those banks may eventually appear to be greater.

“There are about 20 banks that fail to make payments and we have been drafting a strategy jointly with the National Bank of Ukraine how to help those banks,” Tymoshenko said. (tl/ez)