KYIV, July 29 – In the event the war drags on into 2023, the Ukrainian economy will grow by 2% with inflation of 19.4%, however, due to continued blocking of ports and net capital outflow, international reserves will decrease to $9.8 billion, or 1.5 months of imports, such an alternative scenario of the macroeconomic forecast in the inflation report was published on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).

"In terms of the main macroeconomic parameters, the alternative scenario does not differ much from the baseline ... At the same time, the risks of macro-financial destabilization in this scenario increase significantly, which makes tough economic measures by the authorities and significant international support even more critical," the NBU said.