KIEV, May 25 – Ukraine’s economy, hit by the global financial crisis, may have contracted 23% on the year in the first quarter, and is perhaps the fastest shrinking economy in Eastern Europe, President Viktor Yushchenko said Monday.

The estimate, which suggests the contraction is worse then has so far been thought, comes after Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko had prohibited her government from releasing vital economic statistics.

“The contraction is expected between 20% and 23% in the first three months of the year,” Yushchenko said in a statement posted on his Website. “The pace of the contraction is one of the fastest in Europe.”

Many economists predicted Ukraine’s economy had probably contracted 20% on the year in the first quarter. But that forecast may seem to be too optimistic after figures had indicated the industrial output had dropped 32% in the first quarter.

The Tymoshenko government has taken unprecedented steps this year to conceal the state of economy by refusing to disclose economic statistics. The government - at Tymoshenko’s personal pressure - approved two special orders over the past 40 days effectively banning the release of economic statistics.

Tymoshenko did not comment on the orders, but analysts said the release of bad economic data may hurt her politically ahead of the presidential election due in January 2010. Tymoshenko’s rating has been falling sharply after the crisis had hit Ukraine in October 2008.

Last week an official at the State Statistics Committee said the Q1 economic performance results will not be released until late June, triggering speculations the economy may have been hit worse then has been so far thought.

Anastasia Golovach, an economist with Renaissance Capital Ukraine, said the economy may have actually contracted by up to 30% on the year in the first quarter, The Associated Press reported.

Golovach defended her forecast by citing figures showing the industrial output had falling 32%, the construction industry had contracted nearly 50%, the transport industry had shrunk about 25% and trade had fallen 17%.

The government’s orders, which also prohibit ministries and agencies from sharing the economic data with the office of the president, name only two people in Ukraine – Tymoshenko and her close party ally First Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Turchynov - as having full access to the data.

Yushchenko’s office said Friday the International Monetary Fund was concerned over the continued delay of the statistics, which may jeopardize the release of $3 billion loan next month.

Ukraine, which received $2.8 million installment earlier this month, relies on IMF money to avoid default on foreign debts this year and next, analysts said. Tymoshenko denied speculations that Ukraine may face default. (tl/ez)