KIEV, Nov. 24 – The National Bank of Ukraine let the hryvnia slide further against the U.S. dollar Monday by refusing to intervene on the forex market amid apparent concerns that its reserves have been falling sharply.
The hryvnia closed at 6.50 hryvnias to the dollar in trading between commercial banks on Monday compared with 6.35/dollar on Friday, dealers said, adding the NBU had stayed away from the interventions.
Also, the NBU quoted the hryvnia at 6.29/dollar in its official exchange rate to be in effect on Tuesday, compared with 6.17/dollar that was in effect on Monday. This rate is used in tax transactions between exporters and the government.
The developments underscore the NBU’s recent policy move, which seeks to speed up unification of the “official” and “interbank” exchange rates in Ukraine, one of the demands of the International Monetary Fund.
The NBU recently decided to quote its daily official exchange rate based on daily closing of the hryvnia in forex trading between the banks, scrapping its earlier tactic of setting the rates arbitrarily. The policy change is due to take effect on Nov. 28.
The unification of the exchange rates comes as the NBU seeks to save its forex exchange reserves, which have been falling sharply since the hryvnia started to face major downward pressure.
The NBU’s reserves shrunk to $31.9 billion as of Nov. 1 from about $38.2 billion as of early October as the central bank began shelling out dollars to support the hryvnia.
The massive hard currency interventions initially helped to stabilize the situation for several days, but the downward pressure had resumed last week, sending the hryvnia to as low as 6.50/dollar on Monday, compared with 4.85/dollar in September.
The IMF, in its report, said the ongoing financial crisis may reduce the NBU’s forex reserves to as low as $14.9 billion by Dec. 31, 2009.
Specifically, the IMF sees the NBU reducing the reserves to $26.7 billion as of Dec. 31, to $21.8 billion as of March 31, 2009, $18.7 billion as of June 30 and to $16.6 billion as of Sept. 30, according to media reports.
The IMF approved a $16.4 billion emergency loan to Ukraine earlier this month, of which $4.5 billion has already been disbursed to the NBU, government officials said.
Meanwhile, banking industry executives on Monday called on the NBU to do anything possible to avert a major depreciation of the hryvnia, which may backfire and slow down the economic growth.
“What we expect from the National Bank is first of all providing stability of the hryvnia,” Serhiy Tyhypko, the CEO of Swedbank and a former governor of the NBU, said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
“If the NBU will be making interventions of $300 million to $500 million this will not save the situation,” Tyhypko said. “It’s necessary to introduce a mandatory sale of hard currency by exporters, centralize via the NBU all foreign exchange transactions and to implement strict control over imports.”
“If there is going to be devaluation, it must be done quickly and after that the exchange rate must be kept maximally long,” Tyhypko said. (tl/ez)
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