KIEV, Oct. 27 – The National Bank of Ukraine on Monday widened the hryvnia’s trading band against the U.S. dollar through the end of the year, but decided to keep the new figures secret to avoid panic.
The NBU’s Council, a strategic policy body, held an emergency meeting in reaction to persistent downward pressure on the hryvnia, which had already lost 23% of its value over the past three weeks.
“In conditions like this we will refrain from announcing our forecast figures,” Petro Poroshenko, the head of the Council, said after the meeting. “We do have them, but we do not announce them.”
The meeting comes as the hryvnia slipped to 5.40 to the dollar Monday, compared with 5.34/dollar on Friday, reaching the upper end of the currency trading band of 4.60 to 5.40 to the dollar. This band was announced in early October and was supposed to be in effect through the end of the year.
The NBU was under pressure to change the band, which has quickly become obsolete due persistent strong downward pressure on the hryvnia amid developing financial crisis.
The Council’s decision to widen the currency trading band now will effectively allow the NBU to sell dollars at rates beyond 5.40 hryvnias to the dollar and closer to real market rates of about 6.0 to the dollar.
“The exchange rate for the interventions will approach the market rate,” Poroshenko said.
The NBU shelled out an estimated $3 billion over the past three weeks to support the hryvnia, an unusually high figure, reducing its forex reserves to below $34 billion.
The International Monetary Fund on Sunday agreed in principle to lend Ukraine up to $16.5 billion in emergency financing over the next two years to help the country weather the financial turmoil.
The NBU was in close contact with the IMF over its exchange rate policy, and Poroshenko said the steps had been effectively approved by the Fund as part of the financial rescue package.
The IMF’s $16.5 billion loan, coupled with $34 billion in NBU’s forex reserves, create a cushion worth more than $50 billion that should be enough to tackle the crisis, Poroshenko said.
“We have enough reasons to look into the future with confidence,” Poroshenko said.
Meanwhile, this is the fourth time the NBU has been changing its earlier declared currency trading band for 2008 underscoring a chaotic response to challenges faced by the Ukrainian financial system.
The NBU’s Board, which supervises day-to-day operations, has been widely criticized for allowing the hryvnia to appreciate sharply - beyond the existing currency trading - in May, forcing the Council to de-facto change the band limits afterwards.
But the trend changed in early September after the hryvnia had started to experience major downward pressure against the U.S. dollar, forcing the Council to scrap the band of 4.65 to 5.05 to the dollar and to accept the new band of 4.60 to 5.40 to the dollar.
In Monday trading between commercial banks the hryvnia fell to 6.10 to the dollar, later losing value to 6.15/dollar and forcing the NBU to intervene to return the hryvnia to 5.40 by the closing. (tl/ez)
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