KYIV, June 20 – The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts that in 2025 the loan portfolio of banks will grow by 20-25%, which will allow balancing investments in government bonds, said Kateryna Rozhkova, First Deputy Governor of the NBU.
"We expect that in 2025 the loan portfolio will grow at about the following pace - 20-25%, and this will balance investments in government bonds," she said during the presentation of the financial stability report.
She noted that the share of the loan portfolio in the structure of bank balance sheets is growing, and the regulator hopes that this trend will continue.
"Based on the analysis of the real sector and enterprise balance sheets, we see that from the point of view of business credit metrics, such as business solvency, debt-to-revenue ratio, debt-to-income ratio, the vast majority of enterprises are in a good shape," Rozhkova stated.
This indicates that business has managed to adapt and recover, in particular, thanks to support from government programs. As a result, most enterprises now look attractive to banks as potential borrowers, explained the banker.
At the same time, she noted that consumer demand is not enough for rapid economic growth, and the key role is currently played by the willingness of businesses to invest in production. The state is also a significant source of solvent demand, in particular, due to the need for defense capabilities, which fuels the economy and lending.
"Currently, all the conditions that exist in the market today, and the banking sector, which can provide credit support, wants to do it and has the resources for this. According to a banking survey, the demand for loans from businesses is somewhere at the level of 30% growth," Rozhkova emphasized.
She noted that the regulator is observing an increase in the share of loans with a term of one to three years in the credit portfolio of banks, which indicates an increase in the volume of longer-term financing, which is often of an investment nature, in particular this applies to new loans issued.
As reported, members of the NBU Monetary Policy Committee noted that rates on loans for businesses have increased, but remain at a record level, and banks' credit portfolios continue to grow steadily.
"Our corporate client loan portfolio during the war period includes large investment projects in the processing industry, the defense-industrial complex, energy, and industry. Companies are investing in business development despite military risks," commented Yuriy Katsion, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Oschadbank, responsible for corporate business, on the results of the financial stability report.
He added that since the beginning of 2022, Oschadbank's corporate business loan portfolio has grown by almost 50%. The lending rate has increased every year. In 2024 alone, the growth was 18.4%.
According to the NBU, in May, the volume of loans increased by 1.8%, or by UAH 21 billion - to UAH 1.186 trillion, while deposits decreased by 0.4%, or by UAH 10.3 billion - to UAH 2.805 trillion. (om/ez)