KYIV, May 29 – The DiXi Group, a Ukrainian think tank focused on energy and climate policy, has developed three indicative scenarios for the upcoming summer season that project electricity shortfalls ranging from zero to nearly 3 GW – equivalent to 10–20% of demand. This was announced by Olena Lapenko, General Manager for Security and Resilience at DiXi Group.

During her presentation at the online event Energy Security Talks hosted by DiXi Group under the theme "Summer Outlooks: What Will Happen to Ukraine's Energy System This Summer?", Lapenko outlined the three scenarios.

The first scenario assumes moderate summer temperatures and no further Russian attacks on generation facilities. In this case, peak-hour electricity shortages would be avoided, and the likelihood of outages to balance supply and demand would not exceed 5%. Under this scenario, peak demand would be lower than in winter – an estimated 15.2 GW compared to DiXi's estimated winter peak of 16-16.5 GW.

The second scenario assumes no new damage to the power system but anticipates significantly higher electricity consumption due to extreme heat – up to 18 GW. This would result in a shortfall of 2.8 GW, with potential outages affecting 10-15% of demand.

The third scenario factors in the possibility of new damage to maneuverable generation capacity and moderate air temperatures. Under this model, electricity demand would reach 16 GW, with a projected deficit of 2.7 GW – leading to a shortfall of 16-20%.

"We consider Scenario No. 1 to be the most likely and moderate. Even if there are missile strikes, we hope that enhanced air defense and improved physical protection measures will mitigate their impact," Lapenko said.

She noted that nuclear generation – Ukraine's baseload power source – would remain largely stable throughout the summer, though 2-3 reactor units would be offline for maintenance. Thermal generation output would depend on the intensity of attacks and repair speeds, while hydropower would also be affected by water availability.

Lapenko explained that the low role of renewable energy in the models was due to the fact that peak demand typically occurs in the evening, when solar power generation is minimal or non-existent.

She also stated that electricity imports – which played a key role in April – are expected to reach 500,000 to 800,000 MWh per month during summer. However, rising demand across Europe due to heat could drive up prices and make imports less accessible, requiring increased reliance on domestic resources.

"If cross-border capacity is unavailable for imports, we believe thermal power plants will be tasked with covering peak demand. Therefore, repairs must be carried out swiftly, with shorter downtime, to meet summer consumption needs," Lapenko said. (om/ez)