KYIV, July 5 – The International Monetary Fund (IMF), following the fourth review of the EFF program for Ukraine, has updated the negative scenario, which retains the assumption of a more intense war that will last until the end of 2025: the fund has improved its GDP forecast for this year and at the same time worsened it to the next one.

"The revised downside scenario maintains the assumption of a more intense war running into 2025, with the shock now assumed to start in 2024Q3 compared to 2024Q2 in the third review. The output contraction reaches 1.7% in 2024 compared with baseline growth of 2.5–3.5%," the IMF said.