KYIV, Feb 16 - Tens of thousands of new Russian conscripts are flowing into Ukraine ahead of the war’s one-year mark, with Moscow looking to overwhelm Ukrainian troops and retake huge swaths of territory lost last autumn as spring warms the region, The Hill reported.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg this week said the “reality is we have seen the start” of the offensive already, and U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley called it “a critical moment,” in the conflict.

But the little-trained and ill-equipped Kremlin troops are only likely to bring about another kind of stalemate in the region, experts say, warning that it’s not the full-scale offensive expected.

“I don’t think this is the big thing that we’re all waiting for,” said John Spencer, a retired Army major and chairman of urban warfare studies at the Madison Policy Forum.

He said the operation is in its early phase — similar to when Russia positioned its forces on the borders of Ukraine in January 2022 — with a massive mobilization not yet observed.

“Although some units are advancing along the line or pushing forward … they haven’t shown the capability to conduct coordinated large-scale operations,” Spencer told The Hill.

The West is closely watching the event unfold, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Thursday saying officials are seeing Russia continue to pour large numbers of additional troops into the fight.

“Those troops are ill-equipped and ill-trained, and because of that, they’re incurring a lot of casualties, and we expect that that will continue,” Austin told reporters in Estonia’s capital after meeting with the country’s defense minister.

Austin added that Russia has also increased its shelling around Bakhmut — an area contested for some time.

The Kremlin on Thursday also began a renewed rocket barrage on Ukraine, firing some 36 missiles that struck critical infrastructure in the country, according to Kyiv. Officials warned that a much larger missile attack was anticipated on Feb. 24, the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

“They’re beginning to shape the battlefield,” said Jim Townsend, a former Pentagon official now also with the Center for a New American Security. “The offensive hasn’t started in terms of masses of troops, but they’re beginning to try to maneuver on the grounds and to get them position to begin that offensive.”

The goal is to retake the land that Ukrainian forces started gaining throughout the summer and fall, a campaign that retook thousands of square kilometers of captured territory before the two sides reached a stalemate in the winter.

The United States on Jan. 25 agreed to send Ukraine 31 M1 Abrams tanks, shoring up an agreement with Germany and other European nations to send the more widely available Leopard tanks into the conflict. In the same month, the Biden administration announced it would send M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicles and Stryker armored vehicles to Ukraine for the first time. (hi/ez)