KYIV, Feb. 13 – Ukraine will surprise Russian President Vladimir Putin by successfully deploying advanced weapon systems to repel Russian tanks if he orders invasion, Serhiy Verlanov, former head of the State Tax Service, said Sunday.

Russian generals underestimate the level of resistance that will be put up by the Ukrainian army, which is equipped with anti-tank weapons systems from Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and Thales Air Defense, he said.

“This will inevitably slow down the Russian advance and will surprise Putin to the downside,” Verlanov wrote in an article published by Seeking Alfa, a U.S. financial news service, on Sunday.

Ukraine now has 3,200 advanced guided anti-tank missile systems delivered to the country via an airbridge from the U.K. and the U.S. over the past 30 days, which already exceeds the number of tanks that Russia may put up against Ukraine.

Russia may put 1,200 tanks up against Ukraine in the potential invasion, and those will be met by 900 Ukrainian tanks, Verlanov said. “Add to this equation about 3,200 of highly effective anti-tank weapons operated by Ukrainian soldiers, and you will understand why the Russian advance may not be as rapid as Russian generals hope,” he said.

“Russia may be able to resupply hardware lost in battle, but it won’t be able to quickly replace crews that take many months to train,” he said.

Verlanov’s articles tend to generate interest among U.S. investors after successful calls he has made concerning the Ukrainian economy and the energy sector last year.

Verlanov warned investors in August 2021 that reducing exposure to the Ukrainian debt was prudent due to the government’s messy economic policy. He argued that lack of reforms in the government and rampant borrowing at high interest rates boosted inflation and slowed economic growth, pushing the economy into recession in Q2 2021.

Three months later, in November 2021, President Volodymyr Zelensky fired the entire economic team in an apparent frustration over Ukraine’s dismal economic performance.

Verlanov called the reshuffle “a step in the right direction,” but added the measure may be “too little too late.”

“With the Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian border, the government may be even less inclined to launch necessary reforms,” Verlanov said.

“Bad news for Putin, however, is that the U.S., Britain, Canada, and other allies are helping Ukraine to foot the defense bill.” (nr/ez)