KYIV, Nov 5 – Ukraine’s economy probably contracted 3.6% on the year in the third quarter, according to a forecast by the Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture. The economy is expected to shrink 5.5% on the year in January through September, the ministry said Thursday.

"According to the results of the first nine months of 2020, the reduction of the composite production index (CPI) slowed down and amounted to 6.2% (6.5% in January-August, 6% in the third quarter of 2020), accordingly, the Economy Ministry estimates the decrease in the volume of GDP at 5.5% (at 3.6% in the third quarter of 2020)," the ministry said in the document.

The Economy Ministry recalled that earlier in the first nine months of 2020, GDP was expected to fall by 6.5%.

According to the survey, the ministry left unchanged the forecast for a contraction of GDP in 2020 at 4.8% year-over-year, as well as a forecast for a decline in GDP in the fourth quarter by 3% year-over-year.

The corresponding forecasts remain on the condition that the situation with the incidence rate by the end of the year, both in Ukraine and in the world, does not deteriorate significantly, and preventive measures will not be strengthened, in particular, a strict long-term quarantine will not be established in a broader territory of Ukraine.

A separate factor influencing GDP until the end of the year is the downward dynamics in agriculture, including crop production, along with a low yield of grain and oilseeds, as well as vegetables and fruits.

The Economy Ministry said that in the event of a prolonged lockdown in Ukraine and in the world, the fall in GDP in the fourth quarter could turn out to be significantly worse than forecast and amount to 6% year-over-year. As a result, under such conditions, the economy may contract by the end of the year by 5.6% year-over-year. (om/ez)