KIEV, July 17 ??“ The Socialist Party will probably not make it to Parliament in the case of an early election as voters would punish the group for its recent defection to the pro-Russian camp, opinion polls show.

The Socialists Party would score 2.7% of the vote, down from 5.7% that the party collected at the March 26 election, according to a poll conducted by FOM-Ukraine, a survey agency.

Another poll, by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, suggested the Socialist Party would score 2.6% at the early election, which is less than 3% that is required for a party to get seated in Parliament.

The results are the first measured reactions to the Socialist Party??™s recent surprise defection from the pro-Western coalition to the pro-Russian camp led by the Regions Party. The defection undermined the pro-Western coalition and may change Ukraine??™s foreign policy course by challenging President Viktor Yushchenko.

???This is the people??™s reaction,??? Oleksandr Bukhalov, the head of FOM-Ukraine said at a press conference.

Yushchenko has been considering dismissing Parliament and calling the early election should the pro-Russian coalition fail to form the government by the deadline of July 25.

Yushchenko also has been apparently trying to encourage a coalition between his pro-Western party, Our Ukraine, and the Regions Party, to form a grand coalition to promote his foreign and economic reform policies.

But the Regions Party has so far ruled out such a coalition, a development that had been strengthening positions of those advising Yushchenko to dismiss the legislature and to call the new election.

With the Socialist Party out and the Communist Party hovering on the verge of the threshold, the next government would largely be decided between Our Ukraine, the Regions Party and the group led by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

The Regions Party would collect 36.5% of the vote, up from 32.1% collected at the March 26 election, according to FOM-Ukraine. The Tymoshenko group, a pro-Western group, would collect 19.8%, down from 22.3%, and Our Ukraine would score 9.3%, down from 14%. The Communist Party would collect 3.1%, down from 3.7%.

Another poll, by the KIIS, suggests the Regions Party would collect 38% of the vote, while the Tymoshenko group would score 16% and Our Ukraine would receive 7.5%, while the Communists would end up with 2.1% of the vote.

Some 16% of respondents polled by KIIS had backed an idea of dismissing Parliament, while about 54% had not supported the move, while 20% of respondents were not sure. Some 2,095 respondents were polled between July 10 and July 14 with margin of error at 2.2%.

Meanwhile, as Yushchenko has been weighting the idea of dismissing Parliament, the pro-Russian coalition has been sending messages that it would probably defy the move.

Oleksandr Moroz, the leader of the Socialist Party, who was elected the speaker of Parliament due to the support from the Regions Party, said lawmakers would ignore the dismissal.

???We will simply not go away,??? Moroz told Kommersant daily. ???What, does the president have the right to dismiss Parliament? Let??™s not give the president anti-constitutional advises.??? (tl/ez)