NEW YORK, Aug. 31 – Russia’s military build-up near Ukraine is not poised for an immediate invasion, but will be used by Moscow as a long-term play to undermine the country, a Western analyst said Wednesday.

“Russia isn’t about to escalate the war in Ukraine’s east, but it is reorienting its forces to surround and contain Ukraine for years to come in a process that has been largely overlooked,” Michael Kofman of Foreign Policy Magazine wrote.

Russia has amassed 100,000 troops on its border with Ukraine for six-day military exercises and many are viewing the buildup as a serious immediate threat.

Andriy Lysenko, President Petro Poroshenko’s spokesman on the conflict in Donbas, said Tuesday the buildup is on a scale that would result in “very bloody consequences” should Moscow decide to invade.

But Kofman argued that Russia is in for a long-term play and was rather rebuilding its bases around Ukraine that will house army personnel for years.

“This is not a massing invasion force, as some have alleged,” Kofman said. “The buildup shouldn’t come as a surprise, nor should it be viewed as evidence of Russian strategic mastery.”

For nearly two years Russia has been steadily planning the return of permanent garrisons to Ukraine’s borders, creating new divisions and shifting brigades from other regions.

New bases are springing up in what Russia’s Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu calls the country’s “southwestern strategic direction,” as units are repositioning from other parts of the country closer to Ukrainian borders.

The Russian General Staff has been busily digging to create housing for new divisions and deploying modernized equipment to existing forces based in the region.

“Invading armies don’t build garrisons with soccer fields and apartment buildings for permanent bases,” Kofman said. “They mass and then they invade.”

Russia declared in November 2014 that a new brigade would return to Yelnya, some 60 miles from Ukraine’s northern border and close to Belarus as well. In January it became clear that this would likely be the core of one of three new divisions on Ukraine’s borders.

This unit will be formed by the second half of 2017, perhaps numbering 6,000 by then, although the stated goal for each division is to field 10,000 troops.

Russia also published the base plan and construction timelines for a new garrison in Klintsy, about 30 miles from the Ukrainian border, as part of a public government tender.

Similarly, it was announced in 2015 that Russia’s 20th Army will move its headquarters from Mulino, a city east of Moscow, back to Voronezh, much closer to Ukraine.

These changes were accompanied by other notable decisions: The 23rd motor rifle brigade is moving back from Samara in central Russia to a new base being built for 3,500 soldiers in Valuyki in the Belgorod region along Ukraine’s northern border.

In the Rostov region, which is already packed with Russian military bases, contract servicemen of the 33rd Motor Rifle Brigade have returned from Maikop in the Caucasus.

The relocation of troops will be mostly completed by the end of 2017 after which they will pose a significant steady threat for Ukraine.

“Russia will retain escalation dominance over Ukraine for the foreseeable future,” Kofman said. “Its forces will be better positioned to conduct an incursion or threaten regime change in Kiev than they ever were in 2014.”

“This means that even as Ukraine reforms its military, it should tread with care,” Kofman said. “If this conflict is not placed on stable footing by the time both countries feel themselves capable of engaging in a larger fight, it may well result in a conventional war that would dwarf the small set-piece battles we’ve seen so far.”

Beyond imposing a ceasefire on the current fighting, the West should think about what a rematch might look like several years from now, he said.

“Don’t let the Soviet hardware on parade at Kiev’s recent Independence Day celebrations fool you. The constellation of forces is not and will not be in Ukraine’s favor for years to come,” Kofman said. “Russia’s moves, beyond the current exercises and maneuvers, will also make it harder to monitor its intentions.” (nr/ez)