KIEV, May 30 – Ukraine's currency, the hryvnia, will fall 10-15% against the dollar by the end of next year, Moody's Investors Service forecasts.
"Despite the fact that the hryvnia starting from 2009 has remained stable, given the pressures of the current account [the deficit of the current operations account], we are expecting the hryvnia rate to decline by 10-15% in the forecast period (12-18 months)," reads a review by Moody's on Ukraine's banking system.
Moody's noted that the devaluation might cause additional problems for foreign currency loans in the portfolio of Ukrainian banks. This is indicated by the deterioration in asset quality of the Ukrainian banks during the crisis in 2008-2009, when the negative trend of the national currency exchange rate complicated the servicing of loans in foreign currency, especially by borrowers from the sectors that are not hedged by currency revenues (construction, real estate, domestic wholesale and retail trade).
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