KIEV, Nov. 29 - Ukraine, conceding that the global economic slowdown will have a major impact on its vital export industries, on Tuesday cut its forecast for economic growth next year to about 4% from an earlier estimated 5.5%.

"Events of recent months are forcing us to switch to a more cautious scenario," Prime Minister Mykola Azarov told a business gathering, according to a Reuters report.

"We had expected GDP growth at about 5.5% next year ... (but) we are looking more at about 4.0 percent," he added.

Azarov's more modest assessment brings the Ukrainian government into line with that of the International Monetary Fund which viewed Ukraine's official outlook as unrealistic.

The ex-Soviet republic is hoping to secure a resumption of credit from the IMF under a $15 billion aid programme which was suspended at the beginning of this year after Kiev delayed structural reforms.

Ukraine's economy is dominated by steel exports, making it volatile to global demand fluctuations, and the European Union, which might be headed towards a recession, is one of its main export markets.

Analysts polled by Reuters this month said growth would slow to 4.1 percent next year from 4.6 percent seen in 2011, contrary to the government's earlier expectations of accelerated expansion.

Azarov's government is hoping for GDP growth of 4.7% in 2011 compared to 4.2% in 2010 which followed a disastrous fall of 15% in 2009.

But the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has put this year's growth at 4.5% and at 3.5% in 2012.

Ukraine's economy is expected to expand 4.7% in 2011, but is likely to slow down the growth to 4% in 2012, according to a forecast by Fitch Ratings.

According to the forecast, the average annual inflation in 2011 is projected at 9.5% and in 2012 at 9%, while the average hryvnia exchange rates are expected at UAH 8.10/$1 and UAH 8.30/$1 respectively.

The rating agency expects the country's total public debt to reach $29.8 billion in 2011 and $29.7 billion in 2012. At the same time, the current account deficit this year will reach 4.5% of GDP, while in 2012 it will drop to 3.9%.

Fitch also notes the high economic volatility, the weakness of the banking system and the uniformity of the implementation of reforms.

According to forecasts made by Fitch, Ukraine's gross foreign reserves in 2011 will drop to $30.2 billion and in 2012 to $27.8 billion.

Ukraine's GDP in the second quarter of 2011 expanded 3.8% compared with the same period in 2010, down from 5.3% expansion reported in the first quarter, the State Statistics Service reported. (rt/om/ez)